The Serie A game of the weekend arrives on Sunday when seventh place visits Lazio to face fourth place Juventus

Six points separate these two sides in the table but in this case the tables lie about the real quality difference between these clubs Lazio’s recent good but misleading form creates a betting value for the hosts to get all three points from this game fetch

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Based on expected goals, the shape of blacks and whites is actually better in 2020-21 than it has been in the last two seasons, the results just don’t follow that campaign Inter Milan are likely to win the league title as they get both the performances and the results

However, Juventus’ underlying numbers do not match the current portrayal of a team that will not win the Serie A title for the first time since 2011

Juventus’ 104 xGD pro 90 is second best in the league, a few ticks behind Inter Andrea Pirlo’s side have improved dramatically on the defensive as it’s allowed in the middle of the table but the lowest xG per shot in the league scores

Not allowing great scoring chances, the blacks and whites force the opponents to get an excellent finish to convert chances and score goals for them.The Juventus opponents have the longest attempted shooting distance in the league and also allow that fewest shots on goal in the division

Add above average goalkeeping play and Juventus was very hard to break Given Lazio’s attacking metrics, it will be very difficult for the visitors to fall behind and create great opportunities

My numbers and the market disagree on how good Lazio really is, and that’s why I keep betting against the club

The White and Sky Blues had won six league games in a row before a 3-1 setback against Inter Milan on Valentine’s Day. Lazio then lost to Bayern Munich in the Champions League and suffered a 2-0 defeat against Bologna last weekend The White and Sky Blues six-game run has always been a bit happy with the goals expected, and it’s no surprise they are heading back

Lazio’s attacking numbers are very mediocre and not particularly good for this Juventus team The shot distance and xG per shot are in the lower half of the league In the second leg at the start of the season, Lazio were 75 minutes behind and still only scored 09 xG before Felipe Caciedo in 95 Minute found a balance

Lazio was hot on penalties last season, presenting Juventus with a poor title challenge, but their xGD per 90 numbers this year is in seventh place at 0, which is a sharp drop between the top six clubs in the league

My number for this game is Juventus on the moneyline at -175 and I am putting a lot of emphasis on the hosts in order to move up to third place with a win and to bring the title closer to Inter Milan

While these teams are six points apart in the overall standings, the Understat Expected Points table suggests they should be closer to 17 points apart

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Juventus versus Lazio

World news – CA – Juventus versus Lazio: Back Cristiano Ronaldo’s team in the Serie A battle

Source: https://www.actionnetwork.com/soccer/saturday-serie-a-betting-odds-picks-predictions-juventus-vs-lazio-march-6